Cobalt Squeeze: Can You Still Get Stellite Alloy On Time?
Sep 21, 2026
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Current State of Cobalt Supply
The global cobalt supply is currently caught in a tug-of-war between export controls imposed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and market demand. The DRC began regulating supply through export bans and quotas in 2025, a move that drove cobalt prices up more than threefold between early 2025 and April 2026. However, as exports have gradually resumed-compounded by concerns over demand and rising supplies from recycling-prices have fallen nearly 30% from their April peak. Although quotas remain strict, mining companies have actually exported only about two-thirds of the approved totals; the DRC has demanded the surrender of unused quotas, a move that could further tighten supply. Meanwhile, cobalt continues to be produced as a byproduct of copper mining, leading to a significant buildup of inventories among producers.
In Europe, concerns center on the potential impact of regulatory policies on the supply chain. The EU plans to strictly limit worker exposure to cobalt dust, but European cobalt users warn that these standards are excessively stringent and costly; such measures could force companies to close or relocate, thereby undermining the EU's efforts to strengthen its mineral supply chains. The EU's net-zero strategy relies heavily on critical raw materials like cobalt, with geopolitical tensions and regulatory pressures viewed as primary sources of risk.
Overall, while the DRC is attempting to prop up prices through controls, high prices are simultaneously stimulating recycling and the adoption of substitutes, while weak downstream demand limits upside potential. For Europe, the challenge stems from the dual pressure of internal regulations and external supply uncertainties.
The global cobalt market is shifting from a surplus to a deficit.
A report by the Cobalt Institute from June 2026 clearly outlines these two scenarios:
①Excluding export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): There is a projected global cobalt deficit of approximately 16,000 tonnes in 2026. This figure is based on a balance sheet utilizing the nominal capacities of all global mines.
②Factoring in the DRC's quota system (an export cap of 96,600 tonnes): The deficit widens to 80,000 tonnes, equivalent to 27% of global demand. This aligns with the assessment in the IEA's *Global Minerals Outlook 2026*, which projects the cobalt supply gap expanding from slightly above 15% to over 25%.
The 64,000-tonne difference between these two figures represents the volume of supply removed from the market by the DRC's export control policies.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) implemented an export ban in February 2025, transitioning to a quota system in October; the export cap for 2026 was set at 96,600 tonnes-less than half of the 2024 global production volume (approximately 220,000 tonnes). Actual exports in 2025 totaled only 44,300 tonnes, falling far short of the quota limit.
The IEA specifically noted that the DRC's ARECOMS retains the authority to withhold or release stockpiles based on price trends, a factor that introduces uncertainty regarding medium-term prices. For buyers, the primary risk is not merely high prices, but the inability to predict whether supplies will be available in the coming quarter. Even after the quota system had time to settle, actual export volumes from mining companies remained significantly below approved limits; from December 2025 through the end of June 2026, actual exports accounted for only about two-thirds of the total approved volume.
Demand data from the Cobalt Institute's Q2 2026 report reveals a critical structural reality:
Global cobalt demand is projected to grow by 8.0%, with EV batteries driving the bulk of the incremental volume (+14.9 ktpa).
Demand growth for superalloys (upstream of Stellite) stands at +5.4%-down from +7.5% in 2025-and is expected to slow further to +3.4% in 2027.
This implies that batteries, not alloys, are the primary engine of cobalt demand growth. When supply tightens, battery manufacturers naturally possess greater purchasing scale and bidding power than superalloy users. This is not a market of "equitable allocation," but rather a competitive arena where priority is determined by purchasing volume and the ability to pay; within this structure, superalloy users face a structural disadvantage.
Should alternatives be sought? Should Stellite cobalt alloys be replaced?
Indeed, this is a question everyone asks. When cobalt supplies tighten, the immediate reaction is to look for alternatives. While this intuition holds true for some alloy systems, it does not apply to the high-temperature, wear-resistant applications where Stellite is used.
Stellite is not merely a generic cobalt alloy; it is a family of cobalt-chromium-tungsten-carbon alloys first developed in 1907 and continuously refined through more than a century of industrial use. Its wear resistance stems not just from the cobalt itself, but from tungsten and chromium carbides-hard phases that retain their stability and hardness even at temperatures where other alloy systems begin to soften.
Consider a standard oilfield gate valve. API 600 specifications dictate the use of heat-treated 13Cr steel for the gate, paired with a valve seat sealing surface hard-faced with Stellite 6. The hardness of Stellite 6 enables it to withstand erosion from produced sand, corrosion caused by H₂S and CO₂, and mechanical wear resulting from repeated opening and closing cycles. (Click the image to view detailed information about Stellite 6.)
Are there other hard-facing alloys that meet these specifications? In scenarios involving lower temperatures and milder operating conditions, yes. However, as operating conditions shift toward higher temperatures and greater impact loads, the range of viable options narrows significantly. The same logic applies to steam turbine blades, where Stellite protective shields serve as the standard solution against water droplet erosion. In the realm of gas turbines-spanning industrial, marine, and aerospace applications-Stellite alloys are used for guide vanes and nozzle guide vanes, components that operate at temperatures approaching 1,100°C.
This is not to say the industry is standing still; researchers are actively exploring cobalt-free alternatives. A notable example is a long-term strategic initiative by NASA. As early as the early 1980s, NASA's Lewis Research Center (now the Glenn Research Center) launched a program called COSAM (Conservation of Strategic Aerospace Materials) with a clear objective: to reduce reliance on strategic materials like cobalt in aircraft gas turbine engines. However, it is worth noting that the iron-based alloys resulting from the COSAM project did not ultimately replace cobalt-based alloys on a large scale-not because the technology was unfeasible, but because the impetus for substitution rapidly dissipated once supply chain pressures eased. This precisely illustrates the true boundary of cobalt-free alternatives: technical feasibility does not equate to commercial inevitability.
For the purchaser, the practical conclusion is this: in applications where Stellite is specified, the alloy grade itself is hardly a variable you can alter. What you can change is where you source it-and whether your supplier will still be around when the next cobalt supply crunch hits.
Key Questions to Ask When Sourcing
By now, the logic is clear: cobalt supplies are tightening. Buyers of Stellite alloys are not at the front of the line, and in the specific applications where Stellite is required, the alloy grade itself cannot simply be swapped out.
What you can control is where you source your materials-and whether your supplier has the capability to keep your production running when the next supply crunch hits. Before confirming an order, there are three questions worth asking.
3 Questions
Question 1: Can the required order volume be met?
In the current climate, a supplier capable of fulfilling the contracted volume is one with robust planning capabilities-not one that disappears the moment the cobalt market tightens.
Question 2: Where does my order rank when cobalt supplies are tight?
Users of high-temperature alloys (including Stellite consumers) account for less than 8% of the market. This disparity directly affects your place in the queue. Is supply being reserved for alloy customers? If the answer is vague, your order might already be at the back of the line-or you might not even realize a line exists.
Question 3: Can the supplier provide high-quality, one-stop service?
A supplier that offers advice on grade selection, small-batch trial production, and guidance on welding or cladding process parameters is a partner that helps you get it right the first time.
None of these three questions is about price. While price matters, it doesn't ensure valves stay sealed, blades stay protected, or maintenance schedules stay on track. The truly critical variable is your supplier's long-term stability.
At Lork, these three questions form the core of our business philosophy. We supply Stellite and other cobalt-based alloys in various profiles, serving manufacturers of oilfield valves and industrial wear parts, as well as steam turbine maintenance providers. Our technical team supports customers with grade selection and small-batch trial production. If these are the questions you are asking, we are ready with the answers.
Supplied by Lork Group
Sources for some information:
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/outlook?dub_id=ORaPWcegqACip8q5&trk=org_guest_main-feed-card-text#1
https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/price-forecast/cobalt-price-trends#2
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6266316
Lork Group
Marketing Operations Department
Email: layla@lorkgroup.com
WhatsApp: +86 199 3707 5488
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